Evaluating the impact of man-made disasters on imperiled species: Piping plovers and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

摘要: Abstract Even in the presence of environmental safeguards, catastrophic accidents related to anthropogenic activities occur that can result both immediate and chronic impacts on local biota. However, due unplanned nature catastrophes, studies aimed identify effects these an ecosystem its inhabitants often have imperfect study designs are reactive rather than proactive, resulting methodological analytical challenges. On 20 April 2010, following explosion Deepwater Horizon oil rig, a well blowout occurred seafloor approximately 80 km off Louisiana coast Gulf Mexico. This resulted largest marine spill United States history, which impacted critical migratory stopover overwintering habitat for many seabird shorebird species, including species high conservation concern such as piping plover ( Charadrius melodus ). Here, we assessed potential longer-term demographic plovers capture-mark-recapture framework. We examined whether series processes, probabilities remaining at specific wintering site, over-winter annual apparent survival, winter duration, abundance varied among oiled unoiled habitats. found perceived amount oiling land, water, individual birds, numerous were spatially or temporally variable. little support demography was negatively influenced by magnitude observed area, rates substantially between reference areas. Nor did find be had lower survival DWH relative non-oiled individuals from same population. Although not plovers, our methods provide framework more appropriately address near long-term disturbance species.