Assessing sugarcane expansion to ethanol production under climate change scenarios in Paranaíba river basin – Brazil

摘要: Abstract Agroclimatic aptitude can provide information on regions with less impact to the environment for sugarcane growth ethanol production. In this study, agroclimatic maps are generated region encompassing Paranaiba river basin in central-western Brazil, which has presented suitable conditions expansion. Considering a rainfed framework, hydrological requirements were estimated using meteorological station data; numerical integrations of climate change projections, from Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Models under two scenarios; and crop model, CROPWAT 8.0, Food Agriculture Organization United Nations. The resulting exhibit areas vulnerability change, as well potential its None performed analyses indicate increase temperature limiting factor production that region. thermal hydric aptitudes, water deficit is only study area, therefore would require irrigation. This presents southwestern more expansion sugarcane, because lower risk deficit, different paths distinctive El Nino Southern Oscillation variability conditions. Additionally, part fewer environmental conservation units, vast pastureland. Cattle herd be reallocated toward degraded pasturelands, turn recovered. Therefore, affect environment.