From months to minutes – exploring the value of high‐resolution rainfall observation and prediction during the UK winter storms of 2013/2014

摘要: As the societal impacts of hazardous weather and other environmental pressures grow, need for integrated predictions that can represent numerous feedbacks linkages between sub-systems is greater than ever. This was well illustrated during winter 2013/2014 when a prolonged series deep Atlantic depressions over 3 month period resulted in damaging wind storms exceptional rainfall accumulations. The impact on livelihoods property from resulting coastal surge river surface flooding substantial. study reviews observational modelling toolkit available to operational meteorologists this period, which focusses precipitation forecasting months, weeks, days hours ahead time. routine availability high-resolution (km scale) deterministic ensemble short-range as weather-resolving seasonal prediction capability notable landmarks have significant progress research development past decade. Latest results demonstrated suite global UK numerical models provided excellent guidance supported by observations networks, such radar, proved resilient difficult conditions. specific challenges demonstrating performance forecasts are discussed. Despite their good performance, there remains further develop skill these tools fully meet user needs increase value they deliver. These discussed, notably accelerate towards understanding might be delivered through more prediction.