System Reliability Analysis of Flexible Pavements

摘要: The uncertainty in material properties and traffic characterization the design of flexible pavements has led to significant efforts recent years incorporate reliability methods probabilistic procedures for design, rehabilitation, maintenance pavements. In mechanistic-empirical (ME) pavements, despite fact that there are multiple failure modes, criteria applied majority analytical pavement guard only against fatigue cracking subgrade rutting, which usually considered as independent events. This study carries out analysis a section these based on first-order method (FORM) second-order (SORM) techniques crude Monte Carlo simulation. Through sensitivity analysis, most critical parameter affecting both rutting was identified surface layer thickness. However, is useful if it can be efficiently accurately components combination an overall system analysis. shows considered, high degree dependence between two demonstrates probability simultaneous occurrence failures almost component failures. Thus, need consider highlighted, indicates improvement performance should tackled light reducing this undesirable event not merely consideration more mode. Furthermore, seen increase considerably with small increments mean loads, also results wider bounds. advocates use narrow bounds failure, provides better estimate validated from obtained simulation (MCS).