Future Korean Water Resources Projection Considering Uncertainty of GCMs and Hydrological Models

摘要: The objective of this study is to examine the climate change impact assessment on Korean water resources considering uncertainties Global Climate Models (GCMs) and hydrological models. 3 different emission scenarios (A2, A1B, B1) 13 GCMs` results are used consider scenario GCM, while PRMS, SWAT, SLURP models employed effects model structures potential evapotranspiration (PET) computation methods. 312 ensemble provided 109 mid-size sub-basins over South Gaussian kernel density functions obtained from their suggested with mean variabilities results. It shows that summer winter runoffs expected be increased spring runoff decreased for future periods relative past 30-year reference period. also provides annual average all sub-basins, but increases in northern basins including Han River basin greater than those southern basins. Due reason increase mainly caused by consequently seasonal variations according would severe, could intensify difficulties conservation management. On other hand, as regards uncertainties, highest lowest ones seasons, respectively.