Estimating the impact of China's export policy on tin prices: a mode decomposition counterfactual analysis method
作者： Yongguang Zhu , Deyi Xu , Jinhua Cheng , Saleem Hassan Ali
DOI: 10.1016/J.RESOURPOL.2018.07.012
关键词: Tin 、 China 、 Comparative advantage 、 Empirical research 、 Counterfactual thinking 、 Monetary economics 、 Consumption (economics) 、 Production (economics) 、 Lagging 、 Economics
摘要: Abstract China is an important country for the storage, import, production and consumption of tin ore exporter refined tin. Since 2002, has engaged in export quota management both products. In January 2017, Chinese government officially abolished quotas tariffs this paper, we propose mode decomposition counterfactual analysis method, which composed extreme event a analysis, to estimate resulting policy effects. We also use method effects China's on price. empirical research, compare three kinds methods, finally select decomposition. Finally, chose EMD results. The main conclusions are as follows. First, market comparative advantage trade, change will not affect SHFE Second, cancellation results increase supply international market, so LME prices downward trend long run. Third, policies exacerbated investors' concerns about uncertainty short-term fluctuation prices. Fourth, feedback lagging behind policy, price effective indicator policy. discuss directions future research.
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