Guess-Work and Reasonings on Centennial Evolution of Surface Air Temperature in Russia. Part III: Where is the Joint Between Norms and Hazards from a Bifurcation Analysis Viewpoint?

摘要: The paper continues the application of bifurcation analysis in research on local climate dynamics based processing historically observed data daily average land surface air temperature. Since analyzed are from instrumental measurements, we doing experimental analysis. In particular, focus discussion where is joint between normal systems (norms) and situations with potential to create damages (hazards)? We illustrate that, perhaps, criteria for hazards (or violent unfavorable weather factors) relate mainly empirical considerations human opinion, but not natural qualitative changes dynamics. To build diagrams, base unconventional conceptual model (HDS-model) which originates hysteresis regulator double synchronization. HDS-model characterized by a variable structure competition amplitude quantization time quantization. Then intermittency three periodical processes considered as typical behavior instead both chaos quasi-periodicity order excuse variety From known specific regularities dynamics, try find way decompose behaviors into homogeneous units within sections Here, present first results such decomposition, quasi-homogeneous (QHS) determined basis modified reconstructed limits connected problem shape defects. Nevertheless, proposed (QHS-analysis) allows exhibit how comparatively modest temperature differences mentioned an annual scale can step-by-step expand great variability at centennial scale. norms fundamentally different viewpoints, months and, especially, seasons distort causal effects dynamical processes. circumstances realize summarized notion likely periodicity. That, explain why 30-year averaging remains most common rule so far, decadal begins substitute that rule. believe QHS-analysis be viewpoint, projected customary timescale only last step. could interesting develop fields climatic change risk assessment.