Questioning the role of phenology shifts and trophic mismatching in a planktonic food web

摘要: Abstract In a warming climate, differential shifts in the seasonal timing of predators and prey have been suggested to lead trophic “mismatches” that decouple primary, secondary tertiary production. We tested this hypothesis using 25-year time-series weekly sampling at Plymouth L4 site, comparing 57 plankton taxa spanning 4 levels. During warm years, there was weak tendency for earlier timings spring later autumn taxa. While is line with many previous findings, numerous exceptions existed only few (e.g. Gyrodinium spp., Pseudocalanus elongatus, Acartia clausi) showed consistent, strong evidence temperature-related shifts, revealed by all indices we used. Also, calculated offsets (i.e. “mismatches”) between predator were no greater extreme or cold years than during more average years. Further, magnitude these had effect on “success” predator, terms their annual mean abundance egg production rates. Instead other factors override, including: inter-annual variability food quantity, high baseline levels, turnover rates prolonged availability, allowing extended periods Furthermore taxa, notably meroplankton, increased well before bloom. theoretically chronic mismatch, likely reflects trade-offs example predation avoidance. Various gelatinous (Phaeocystis, Noctiluca, ctenophores, appendicularians, medusae) may reduced constraints, variable, explosive population outbursts responding improved conditions. The match–mismatch apply highly seasonal, pulsed systems specialist feeders, but suggest concept being over-extended marine where multiple compensate.