Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China

摘要: This paper uses resource-based cereal equivalent measures to explore the evolution of China's demand and supply for food. Although food calories is probably close its peak level in China, ongoing dietary shift animal-based foods, induced by income growth, likely impose considerable pressure on agricultural resources. Estimating relationship between growth with data from a wide range countries, appears have been broadly similar global trend. On side, output depends strongly productivity associated country's land endowment, China appearing be an out-performer. The analyses income-consumption-production dynamics suggest that current falls where consumption outstrips production but gap begin decline as population transition slow down. Continued through further investment research development, expansion farm size increased mechanization, well sustainable management resources, are vital ensuring it primarily will feed 21st century.