Estimation of Landslides Activities Evolution Due to Land–Use and Climate Change in a Pyrenean Valley

摘要: Open image in new window Global changes would have impacts worldwide, but their effects should be even more exacerbated areas particularly vulnerable. Mountainous are among these vulnerable territories. In order to estimate the capacity of such mountainous valleys face global (climate, also climate- and human- induced land-use changes), it is necessary able evaluate evolution different threats. The present work shows a methodology influences both vegetation cover climate on landslides activities over whole valley until 2100, propose adequate solutions for current future forestry management. Firstly, assessment land use addressed through construction four prospective socio-economic scenarios up 2040 which then spatially validated modeled with LUCC models. Secondly, change inputs project correspond 2 emission greenhouse gases. used simulations were performed GHG emissions RCP 4.5 8.5. impact into hazards computations. For that we large-scale slope stability tool ALICE combines mechanical model, module interfere first take account soil properties, hydrogeological model. results demonstrate influence forest stability; absence implies an increase probability landslide occurrence, at contrary, presence has local effect slope. indicate some use, leading significant modifications slopes. Finally may noteworthy occurrence water content when regarding long periods; point out reduction SF large part studied area. These not uniform area, worse scenario