An agent based approach to the potential for rebound resulting from evolution of residential lighting technologies

摘要: More energy efficient lighting options, such as compact fluorescent bulbs and light emitting diodes are predicted to significantly reduce the amount of used for lighting. Such forecasts predicated on assumption saturation do not take into account potential economic rebound. The rebound effect or negate savings is explored here. This work uses an agent-based model with a cellular automata approach study impact consumption residential associated use, using three technologies, time span from 2012 2030. Agents, representative households, select between options multiplicative utility function probabilistic choice mechanism. Agents then decide whether consume more potentially based technology selected personal preferences. agents heterogeneous in nature, consisting seven typologies, their characteristics informed through survey data. results indicate that although may increase, overall changes compared levels will be minor. If held steady, assuming saturation, there adoption energy-efficient result significant savings. However, if occurs, decrease consumers adopt options. Overtime continues those largely eroded. suggests itself long-term scale it successful doing so short-term. greatly projected direct exceed 100 %. In order quantity utilized decrease, solutions beyond efficiency gains must considered.