Environmentalism and localism in agricultural and land-use policies can maintain food production while supporting biodiversity. Findings from simulations of contrasting scenarios in the EU

摘要: Increasing food production without further harming biodiversity is a key challenge of contemporary societies. In this paper, we assess trade-offs between agricultural output and two agri-environmental indicators in four contrasting scenarios for Europe 2040. The represent different storylines encompassing assumptions on macro-economic drivers (e.g. population GDP growth rate), demand livestock products as well policy choices trade liberalisation/protectionism, conservation, regulations land-use planning subsidies to farmers through the European Union (EU) Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Through complex modelling chain, projected year 2040: i) total energy content output; ii) nitrogen surplus, proxy overall impact agriculture environment; iii) an index measuring capacity systems support biodiversity. We present both aggregate results (EU level) spatially explicit assessments at fine resolution (1 km2). Results indicate that strong neo-liberal approach (full liberalisation, abolition subsides) will lead increased use-input efficiency decrease from Nitrogen input; however, large amount area be abandoned, which absolute land homogenisation polarisation, with negative effects areas Protectionist sovereigntist policies keep cultivated high, but cost less use inputs higher impacts environment Under scenario characterised by environmental-friendly practices, multifunctional landscapes localism, significant decreases environmental pressure (compared other scenarios) can achieved minimum output. Our aiming preserving over rural areas, multifunctionality diversification contribute jointly achievement protection high production.