Agent-based modeling of coccidioidomycosis

摘要: Coccidioidomycosis is a fungal infection with an estimated yearly incidence of 150,000 cases in the United States. Up to 50 percent those are occur Maricopa County, Arizona, geographical focus this dissertation. County hotspot for coccidioidomycosis due its unique environmental and climactic conditions including soil type, geology, dust storms, temperature. Although there has been large amount research on epidemiology elsewhere, forecast modeling disease not well established. Current analyses demographic factors their effect sizes but have limited use public health impact events such as storms or vaccination strategies. However by incorporating results from previous studies, historical data Centers Disease Control Prevention Department Health, stochastic epidemiological agent-based can be successfully performed. The development validation model significance forecasting described Among findings, moderately sized storm would expected increase morbidity 4,676 mortality 42 cases. vaccine against could decrease annual 5,979 if individuals get vaccinated at rates comparable influenza. Even campaign that one-fourth effective influenza still significant reduction 2,361 Further web-based tool dissertation, researchers epidemiologists other endemic regions. also used burden hypothetical scenarios coccidioidomycosis. In summary dissertation uses assess natural provides valuable researchers.