Northward bound: the distribution of white-tailed deer in Ontario under a changing climate

摘要: Context Global climatic changes are increasingly producing observable shifts in species distributions. It is widely believed that the northern distribution of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) North America limited by cold winter temperatures and deep snow. Under all climate change scenarios, it likely adverse effects will diminish, which may result a northward expansion deer. Aims The goal this project was to quantify drivers identified from set land cover variables. We wanted forecast limit on under several scenarios. Methods used an occupancy-modelling approach identify variables or combination best estimated occupancy across 140-site camera-observation network operating 2013 2015. validated our model using data mammal atlas 1993. available scenarios predict map for three time horizons up 2100. Key results Our models indicated both had determining influence study area. Variables describing climate, particular temperature snow depth, were most closely associated with edge distribution, added explanatory power. predictions suggested expand northward, given retreat severe winters. Conclusions White-tailed controlled land-based habitat indicators at boundary severity climate. Current CO2 emission indicate conditions no longer area year Implications influx new environments impact dynamics other wildlife populations. management such as moose (Alces alces) caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) these regions must anticipate disruptive potential