The Log Log Prior for the Frequency of Extraterrestrial Intelligences

作者: Brian C. Lacki

DOI:

关键词: Observable universeFermi paradoxStatisticsCurse of dimensionalitySearch for extraterrestrial intelligencePhysicsPrior probabilityExtraterrestrial lifeEntropy (information theory)Bayesian probabilityTheoretical physics

摘要: It is unclear how frequently life and intelligence arise on planets. I consider a Bayesian prior for the probability P(ETI) that evolves at suitable site, with weight distributed evenly over ln(1 - ln P(ETI)). This log can handle very wide range of values, from 1 to 10^(-10^122), while remaining responsive evidence about extraterrestrial societies. motivated by our uncertainty in number conditions must be fulfilled arise, it related considerations information, entropy, state space dimensionality. After setting lower limit possible genome sequences, calculate confidence 18% aliens exist within observable Universe. With different assumptions minimum times appear planet, this value falls between 1.4% 47%. Overall, leans towards being isolated intelligences, but indicates we should not confident conclusion. discuss implications Search Extraterrestrial Intelligence, concluding searches interstellar probes nearby societies seem relatively effective. also possibility small probabilities allowed origin Fermi Paradox, note similar priors might constructed interesting complex phenomena general.

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