Distribution Pattern of Endangered Plant Semiliquidambar cathayensis (Hamamelidaceae) in Response to Climate Change after the Last Interglacial Period

摘要: Semiliquidambar cathayensis is a special and endangered plant in China, used for traditional Chinese medicine landscape applications. Predicting the impact of climate change on distribution S. crucial its protection sustainable use resources. We maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model optimized by ENMeval data packet to analyze potential geographic changes 12 provinces Southern China different periods since last interglacial period (LIG, 120–140 ka). Considering province, based two scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 RCP 8.5, range was analyzed we predicted 2050s (average 2041–2060) 2070s 2061–2080). The area under AUC (Area receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve) 0.9388 these parameters, which indicates that very accurate. speculate glacial refugia were Nanling Wuyi Mountains cathayensis, central Western Fujian Taiwan are likely be future refugia. In mid-Holocene (MH, 6 ka), growth habitat 32.41% larger than modern habitat; (except RCP2.6–2070s), will shrink varying degrees, so efforts support situ ex conservation urgently needed. jackknife test showed main factors affecting geographical annual precipitation, precipitation wettest month, driest month. may key factor restricting northward cathayensis. general, centroid move northward. adaptive habitats with highest degree abnormality. think Hainan Island most origin These findings provide theoretical basis establishment genetic resources measures, construction core germplasm resources, study formation evolution Hamamelidaceae.