Protected Area Tourism in a Changing Climate: Will Visitation at US National Parks Warm Up or Overheat?

摘要: Climate change will affect not only natural and cultural resources within protected areas but also tourism visitation patterns. The U.S. National Park Service systematically collects data regarding its 270+ million annual recreation visits, therefore provides an opportunity to examine how human may respond climate from the tropics polar regions. To assess relationship between park visitation, we evaluated historical monthly mean air temperature (1979–2013) at 340 parks projected potential future (2041–2060) based on two warming-climate scenarios visitation-growth scenarios. For entire system a third-order polynomial model explained 69% of variation in trends. Visitation generally increased with increasing average temperature, decreased strongly temperatures > 25°C. Linear models individual (R2 0.12-0.99, = 0.79, median 0.87). Future almost all (95%) projections. Warming-mediated increases are for most months (67–77% months; range across scenarios), resulting total visits (8–23%) expansion season (13–31 days). Although very warm some see decreases this represents relatively small proportion national system. A changing is likely have cascading complex effects area management, local economies. Results suggest that neighboring communities develop adaptation strategies these changes be able both capitalize opportunities minimize detriment related visitation.