Modelling local and long-distance dispersal of invasive chestnut gall wasp in Europe

摘要: Abstract The chestnut gall wasp, Dryocosmus kuriphilus, was found in Europe 2002 the Piedmont region (Italy), later it spread progressively to rest of Italy and its presence is nowadays confirmed other European countries. discontinuous pattern Italy, increase total invaded area over time are consistent with a stratified dispersal mechanism. spatio-temporal dynamics have been investigated by model. model considers local population growth, spatially continuous short distance random (SDD) discrete events long (LDD), has applied summarize available information on species biology distribution Europe. allowed interpretation reconstruction realistic wasp colonization period 2002–2009, confirming hypothesized mechanism deriving parameter estimates for functions describing SDD LDD. values speed front invasion normally distributed mean 6.6 km/year, significantly less than reported literature. estimated travelled distances per LDD gamma-distributed 76 km. number unit appeared be critical influencing rate forest areas. can used provide projections (scenarios) likely course future based appropriate assumptions invasive efficacy management measures controlling growth via