Long-Range Forecast Possibilities for X-Band Radar Construction On Shemya

摘要: Abstract : The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) plans to construct, during a two-week period, an X-Band Radar (XBR) on Shemya, AK. Wind speeds must not, at any time the construction, exceed 25 knot limit set by MDA for lifting massive dome panels into place. goal of this research was explore possibilities long-range forecasts determine feasibility predicting upcoming windows opportunity, well in advance, that will ensure successful completion constructing XBR Shemya. In order reach goal, following objectives were achieved; (1) climatological wind study Shemya assess optimal window build XBR, (2) detailed synoptic over North Pacific, gain understanding how weather systems develop, move, and vary annual basis, (3) traditional statistical analysis data followed Classification Regression Tree (CART) pattern recognition global teleconnection indices, (4) develop forecasting decision trees assist 11th Operational Weather Squadron (OWS) Alaskan forecast hub daunting task. Aleutian Island chain is plagued persistent strong winds, since Low expanding polar vortex affect region winter, as do tropical storms frontal passages summer. This, combined with being located near exit storm track off East Asian continent, makes island one most challenging locations Northern Hemisphere. This compares surface winds computed Climate Prediction Center (CPC), statistically analyze data. analyzed using standard regression techniques, including linear multiple methods, then CART used large-scale recognition.