Load dependence of power outage statistics

摘要: Dynamics of power outages remain an unpredictable hazard in spite expensive consequences. While the operations components grids are well understood, emergent complexity due to their interconnections give rise intermittent outages, and power-law statistics. Here we demonstrate that there additional patterns outage size distributions indicate proximity a grid catastrophic failure point. Specifically, analysis data for U.S. between 2002-2017 shows significant anti-correlation exponent value distribution load carried by grid. The observation is surprisingly similar dependencies noted dynamics other multi-component complex systems such as sheared granulates earthquake statistics, albeit under much different physical conditions. This inspires generic threshold-activated model, simulated realistic network topologies, which could successfully reproduce variation range. Given sufficient data, methods proposed here can be used points forecast probabilities major blackouts with non-intrusive measurement outages.