Past and future snowmelt trends in the Swiss Alps: the role of temperature and snowpack

摘要: The start of the growing season for alpine plants is primarily determined by date snowmelt. We analysed time series snow depth at 23 manually operated and 15 automatic (IMIS) stations between 1055 2555 m asl in Swiss Central Alps. Between 1958 2019, snowmelt dates occurred 2.8 ± 1.3 days earlier year per decade, with a strong shift towards during late 1980s early 1990s, but non-significant trends thereafter. Snowmelt high-elevation strongly correlated lower-elevation manual stations. At all elevations, depended on spring air temperatures. More specifically, 44% variance was explained first day when three-week running mean daily temperatures passed 5 °C threshold. winter accounted 30% variance. adopted effects temperature snowpack height to climate change scenarios explore likely throughout twenty-first century. Under high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), we simulated advance 6 decade end By then, could occur one month than reference periods (1990–2019 2000–2019). Such may extend third its current duration while exposing shorter daylengths adding higher risk freezing damage.