Predicting cannabis cultivation on national forests using a rational choice framework

摘要: Abstract Government agencies in the United States eradicated 10.3 million cannabis plants 2010. Most (94%) of these were outdoor-grown, and 46% those discovered on federal lands, primarily national forests California, Oregon, Washington. We developed models that reveal how drug markets, policies, environmental conditions affect grow siting decisions. The built a rational choice theoretical structure, utilized data describing 2322 locations (2004–2012) 9324 absence states' forests. Predictor variables included market prices, law enforcement density, socioeconomic, demographic, variables. also used to construct regional maps site likelihood. Significant predictors marijuana street price associated with productivity (e.g., elevation proximity water), production costs, risk discovery. Overall, pattern establishment is consistent theory. In particular, growers consider prices when selecting sites. Ongoing adjustments state laws could cultivation decisions Any changes policies can be reflected our allow redirect interdiction resources potentially increase discovery success.