Political business cycles in the parliamentary system

摘要: Abstract In the parliamentary system, cabinet may call a general election before term of House members matures, if timing is judged favorable. Econometric tests to differentiate following two hypotheses are proposed and applied Japanese data. Under manipulative hypothesis, decides by political reasons manipulates an economy have boom in time, i.e., elections cause booms, similar presidential system; while opportunistic hypothesis states that does not manipulate economy, but calls election, when positive private-sector shocks high growth low inflation, booms trigger elections. Findings indicate has acted opportunistically rather manipulatively.