A multi-agent system model of pastoralist behaviour in Kazakhstan
作者： E.J. Milner-Gulland , C. Kerven , R. Behnke , I.A. Wright , A. Smailov
DOI: 10.1016/J.ECOCOM.2005.05.004
关键词: Rangeland 、 Agricultural economics 、 Geography 、 Livestock 、 Productivity 、 Pastoralism 、 Environmental protection 、 Forage 、 Flock 、 Fodder 、 Rural economy
摘要: Abstract We present a model of household decision-making in Kazakhstan. Traditionally, long-distance livestock migration occurred Kazakhstan's rangelands, exploiting seasonal differences forage availability. After independence, the rural economy collapsed and migrations stopped. use multi-agent system modelling to examine trade-offs allocation wealth between capital flocks. Winter availability is key determinant overall numbers, while price winter fodder an important sector productivity. Seasonal are only likely reestablish if distant pastures have very poor forage. Otherwise, as total flock size increases, larger herds predicted settle away from villages. These predictions match field observations.
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