Uncertainties in Technology Experience Curves for Integrated Assessment Models

摘要: The phenomenon of technological learning has been observed across a wide spectrum energy and environmental technologies. Quantitative modeling experience curves become an increasingly common method representing endogenous technical change in long-term integrated assessment models used for policy analysis. However, many issues remain to be addressed the use quantify cost trends This paper highlights critically reviews some major sources uncertainty their implications model outcomes. It draws on recent empirical literature, as well new data characterizing historical early deployment three technologies especially relevant systems. Our findings indicate need more thorough systematic examination curve formulations outcomes analyses that extend over decades.