Leadership preferences and ethnic bargaining: theory and illustrations

摘要: In explaining ethno-territorial conflicts, leadership preferences have an odd status. case studies, are often viewed as highly significant causes but not usually defined and measured explicitly. large-sample statistical only captured by weakly related proxy variables. This paper aims to fill this gap developing suitable theory, which can be used consistently in both study applications.,Formal bargaining models examine the expected impact of variation preferences. Relevant characteristics then construct measures preferences, applied studies.,In models, is a on conflict outcomes. More extreme nationalist leaders and, more conditionally, strongly power-seeking leaders, should likely willing use force modify status quo – although moderate leaderships also do so under certain conditions. five these formally derived hypotheses receive initial empirical support.,Theoretically empirically, further refinement research promises add value. Formally, it worth investigating additional preference types. Empirically, important invest across large samples.