Shaping the global oil peak: A review of the evidence on field sizes, reserve growth, decline rates and depletion rates

摘要: This review paper summarises and evaluates the evidence regarding four issues that are considered to be of critical importance for future global oil supply. These are: a) how regional resources distributed between different sizes field; b) why estimates recoverable from individual fields tend grow over time current likely contribution this reserve additions; c) rapidly production categories field is declining may expected change in future; d) remaining a or region can produced. It shown that, despite serious data limitations, level knowledge each these has improved considerably past decade. While on growth appears relatively encouraging supply, decline depletion rates does not. Projections supply use assumptions inconsistent with base error.