Dynamic response of Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet to potential collapse of Larsen C and George VI ice shelves

摘要: Abstract. Ice shelf break-up and disintegration events over the past 5 decades have led to speed-up, thinning, retreat of upstream tributary glaciers increases rates global sea-level rise. The southward progression these episodes indicates a climatic cause in turn suggests that the larger Larsen C George VI ice shelves may undergo similar collapse in the future. However, extent which removal ice shelves will affect upstream tributary add sea levels is unknown. Here we apply numerical ice-sheet models varying complexity to show centennial commitment embayment glaciers following immediate is low ( 2100, to 2300). Despite its large size, does not provide strong buttressing forces basins result additional discharge from any our model scenarios. In contrast, response inland Shelf may up 8 mm levels by 2100 22 mm 2300 due part to mechanism marine sheet instability. Our results demonstrate the varying relative importance level Antarctic Peninsula ice considered present risk collapse.