Preventable H5N1 avian influenza epidemics in the British poultry industry network exhibit characteristic scales.

摘要: Epidemics are frequently simulated on redundantly wired contact networks, which have many more links between sites than minimally required to connect all. Consequently, the modelled pathogen can travel numerous alternative routes, complicating effective containment strategies. These networks moreover been found exhibit ‘scale-free’ properties and percolation, suggesting resilience damage. However, realistic H5N1 avian influenza transmission probabilities strategies, here British poultry industry network, show that infection dynamics additionally express characteristic scales. system-preferred scales constitute small areas within an observed power law distribution a lesser slope itself, indicating slightly increased relative likelihood. produced by network-pervading intranet of so-called hotspot propagate large epidemics below percolation threshold. This is, however, extremely vulnerable; targeted inoculation mere 3–6% (depending incorporated biosecurity measures) network prevents moderate outbreaks completely, offering order magnitude improvement over previously advocated strategies affecting most highly connected ‘hub’ sites. In other words, hotspots hubs separate functional entities do not necessarily coincide, make targets. Given ubiquity relevance (epidemics, Internet, grids, protein interaction), recognition this spreading regime elsewhere would suggest similar disproportionate sensitivity such surgical interventions.