Using Bayesian model averaging to estimate terrestrial evapotranspiration in China

作者: Xiaotong Zhang , Shunlin Liang , Aizhong Ye , Wenwen Cai , Jinming Feng

DOI: 10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2015.06.059

关键词: Eddy covarianceFuture studiesStatisticsLarge modelMeteorologyCorrelation coefficientWater balanceBayesian inferenceMean squared errorMathematicsEvapotranspiration

摘要: Summary Evapotranspiration (ET) is critical to terrestrial ecosystems as it links the water, carbon, and surface energy exchanges. Numerous ET models were developed for estimations, but there are large model uncertainties. In this study, a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method was used merge eight satellite-based models, including five empirical three process-based improving accuracy of estimates. At twenty-three eddy covariance flux towers, we examined performance on all possible combinations found that an ensemble with four (BMA_Best) showed best performance. The BMA_Best can outperform Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) value increased by 4% compared highest KGE, decreased RMSE 4%. Although correlation coefficient less than single model, bias smallest models. Moreover, based water balance principle over river basin scale, validation indicated estimates explain 86% variations. general, results BMA will be very useful future studies characterize regional availability long-time series.

参考文章(97)
Monteith Jl, Evaporation and environment. Symposia of the Society for Experimental Biology. ,vol. 19, pp. 205- 234 ,(1965)
Robert E. Keane, Kevin C. Ryan, Tom T. Veblen, Craig D. Allen, Jessie Logan, Brad Hawkes, Cascading effects of fire exclusion in the Rocky Mountain ecosystems: a literature review General Technical Report. RMRS-GTR-91. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 24 p.. ,vol. 091, ,(2002) , 10.2737/RMRS-GTR-91
David E. Rumelhart, Geoffrey E. Hinton, Ronald J. Williams, Learning representations by back-propagating errors Nature. ,vol. 323, pp. 696- 699 ,(1988) , 10.1038/323533A0
Haoran Wu, Xiaotong Zhang, Shunlin Liang, Hua Yang, Gongqi Zhou, Estimation of clear‐sky land surface longwave radiation from MODIS data products by merging multiple models Journal of Geophysical Research. ,vol. 117, ,(2012) , 10.1029/2012JD017567
A. J. Teuling, M. Hirschi, A. Ohmura, M. Wild, M. Reichstein, P. Ciais, N. Buchmann, C. Ammann, L. Montagnani, A. D. Richardson, G. Wohlfahrt, S. I. Seneviratne, A regional perspective on trends in continental evaporation Geophysical Research Letters. ,vol. 36, pp. 20- ,(2009) , 10.1029/2008GL036584
Chris T. Volinsky, Adrian E. Raftery, David Madigan, Jennifer A. Hoeting, Bayesian model averaging: a tutorial (with comments by M. Clyde, David Draper and E. I. George, and a rejoinder by the authors Statistical Science. ,vol. 14, pp. 382- 417 ,(1999) , 10.1214/SS/1009212519
B. Mueller, S. I. Seneviratne, C. Jimenez, T. Corti, M. Hirschi, G. Balsamo, P. Ciais, P. Dirmeyer, J. B. Fisher, Z. Guo, M. Jung, F. Maignan, M. F. McCabe, R. Reichle, M. Reichstein, M. Rodell, J. Sheffield, A. J. Teuling, K. Wang, E. F. Wood, Y. Zhang, Evaluation of global observations-based evapotranspiration datasets and IPCC AR4 simulations Geophysical Research Letters. ,vol. 38, pp. 33- ,(2011) , 10.1029/2010GL046230
He Qing Huang, Gerald C. Nanson, Why some alluvial rivers develop an anabranching pattern Water Resources Research. ,vol. 43, pp. 1- ,(2007) , 10.1029/2006WR005223