Assessing Mumps Outbreak Risk in Highly Vaccinated Populations Using Spatial Seroprevalence Data

摘要: Mumps is a potentially severe viral infection. The incidence of mumps has declined dramatically in high-income countries since the introduction antigen-containing vaccines. However, recent large outbreaks highly vaccinated populations suggest waning vaccine-induced immunity and primary vaccine failure. In this paper we present simple method for identifying geographic regions with high outbreak potential, demonstrated using 2006 seroprevalence data from Belgium Belgian vaccination coverage data. Predictions potential terms effective reproduction number future years signal an increased risk new outbreaks. Literature reviews on serological information both failure provide essential our predictions. Tailor-made additional campaigns would be valuable decreasing local pockets susceptibility, thereby reducing large-scale disease outbreaks; number; mumps; next-generation operator; serology; social contact hypothesis; coverage; vaccines