Anomalies in the detection of change: When changes in sample size are mistaken for changes in proportions.

作者: Klaus Fiedler , Yaakov Kareev , Judith Avrahami , Susanne Beier , Florian Kutzner

DOI: 10.3758/S13421-015-0537-Z

关键词: Constant (mathematics)Sample size determinationChange detectionPsychologyAdaptive functioningPopulationSample (material)StatisticsSocial psychology

摘要: Detecting changes, in performance, sales, markets, risks, social relations, or public opinions, constitutes an important adaptive function. In a sequential paradigm devised to investigate detection of change, every trial provides sample binary outcomes (e.g., correct vs. incorrect student responses). Participants have decide whether the proportion focal feature responses) population from which is drawn has decreased, remained constant, increased. Strong and persistent anomalies change arise when changes proportional quantities vary orthogonally absolute size. Proportional increases are readily detected nonchanges erroneously perceived as size increases. Conversely, decreasing facilitates decreases erroneous perception decreases. These however confined experienced samples elementary raw events proportions be inferred inductively. They disappear described percentages normalized probability format. To explain these challenging findings, it essential understand inductive-learning constraints imposed on decisions experience.

参考文章(63)
Amnon Rapoport, Graham J. Burkheimer, William E. Stein, Response Models for Detection of Change ,(1979)
Hansjörg Neth, Chris R. Sims, Wayne D. Gray, Rational Task Analysis: A Methodology to Benchmark Bounded Rationality Minds and Machines. ,vol. 26, pp. 125- 148 ,(2016) , 10.1007/S11023-015-9368-8
Florian Kutzner, Tobias Vogel, Peter Freytag, Klaus Fiedler, A Robust Classic Experimental Psychology. ,vol. 58, pp. 443- 453 ,(2011) , 10.1027/1618-3169/A000112
José C. Perales, Andrés Catena, David R. Shanks, José A. González, Dissociation between judgments and outcome-expectancy measures in covariation learning: a signal detection theory approach. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition. ,vol. 31, pp. 1105- 1120 ,(2005) , 10.1037/0278-7393.31.5.1105
Veronika Denes-Raj, Seymour Epstein, Jonathan Cole, The Generality of the Ratio-Bias Phenomenon Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. ,vol. 21, pp. 1083- 1092 ,(1995) , 10.1177/01461672952110009
U Hoffrage, G Gigerenzer, Using natural frequencies to improve diagnostic inferences. Academic Medicine. ,vol. 73, pp. 538- 540 ,(1998) , 10.1097/00001888-199805000-00024
W. K. Estes, The cognitive side of probability learning. Psychological Review. ,vol. 83, pp. 37- 64 ,(1976) , 10.1037/0033-295X.83.1.37
Ralph Hertwig, Stefan M. Herzog, Lael J. Schooler, Torsten Reimer, Fluency heuristic : a model of how the mind exploits a by-product of information retrieval Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition. ,vol. 34, pp. 1191- 1206 ,(2008) , 10.1037/A0013025