Economic Impacts of Potential Foot and Mouth Disease Agro-terrorism in the United States: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

摘要: The foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus has high agro-terrorism potential because it is contagious, can be easily transmitted via inanimate objects spread by wind. An outbreak of FMD in developed countries results massive slaughtering animals (for control) disruptions meat supply chains trade, with potentially large economic losses. Although the United States been FMD-free since 1929, as a deliberate terrorist weapon calls for estimates physical damage that could result from an outbreak. This paper impacts three alternative scenarios attacks using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model US economy. range small successfully contained within state to multi-state attack resulting 30 percent national livestock. Overall, value total output losses our simulations between $37 billion (0.15% 2006 baseline output) $228 (0.92%). Major stem constraint on livestock due animal slaughtering. As expected, are heavily concentrated agriculture food manufacturing sectors, ranging $23more » $61 two industries.« less