Time series analysis of temperature and rainfall-based weather aggregation reveals significant correlations between climate turning points and potato (Solanum tuberosum L) yield trends in Japan

摘要: Abstract Potato (Solanum tuberosum L) yield per unit area in Hokkaido, Japan used to be the highest world; however, it has levelled off recently. The objectives of this study were determine how recent climate variations drive potato yields and understand causes for tendency level off. We 1-km mesh resolution meteorological data; aggregation was performed each municipality based on annual cultivation area; data obtained from crop statics Tokachi Okhotsk regions Hokkaido years 1986–2014. not only determined by temperatures during plant growth, as expected, but also before planting. Probable inflexion point corresponded with increase late summer temperature year 2000 onward. negative correlation between spring 2000–2014 resulted patterns warm spring/cool or cool spring/hot summer, linked Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation. A delayed planting germination, whereas a hot shortened growth period, causing lowest 2010. High have encouraged farmers implement adaptation strategies, such earlier As early plantation does necessarily reduce time sprout nor promote longer trend exacerbated responsiveness temperature. result, increasing summers 2000s unaltered well shift cultivars caused eastern drop below those other countries where are high. Detection decadal planned-scale strategy enhancement drainage farm-scale could effectively improve regional despite change.