Reconstruction of 60 Years of Chikungunya Epidemiology in the Philippines Demonstrates Episodic and Focal Transmission

摘要: Proper understanding of the long-term epidemiology chikungunya has been hampered by poor surveillance. Outbreak years are unpredictable and cases often misdiagnosed. Here we analyzed age-specific data from 2 serological studies (from 1973 2012) in Cebu, Philippines, to reconstruct both annual probability infection population-level immunity over a 60-year period (1952-2012). We also explored whether seroconversions during 2012-2013 were spatially clustered. Our models identified 4 discrete outbreaks separated an average delay 17 years. On average, 23% (95% confidence interval [CI], 16%-37%) susceptible population was infected per outbreak, with >50% entire remaining at any point. Participants who seroconverted clustered distances 350 000 infections missed surveillance systems. Serological could supplement provide important insights on pathogen circulation.