Aridification determines changes in forest growth in Pinus halepensis forests under semiarid Mediterranean climate conditions

摘要: Abstract Using a set of 16 Landsat TM and ETM+ images from 1984 to 2006, we tested whether climate trends in the last three decades differentially controlled vegetal activity eight Pinus halepensis forests located across marked bioclimatic gradient. Our results show spatial differences normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) between which were highly related distribution aridity. There was strong correlation change NDVI values climatic water balance each forest (R = 0.86, p = 0.006). A large increment observed most humid areas, whereas those arid areas showed slight decrease NDVI. We used growth simulation model (GOTILWA+) estimate leaf area (LAI) analyzed forests, found similar obtained for Significant pattern LAI 2006 (R = 0.82, p = 0.01). The evolution four explains modeled changes LAI. In agreement with other studies, that general response more favorable conditions (in terms temperature CO2 fertilization) is increased biomass. Nevertheless, positive trend potential evapotranspiration rates stress, had negative effect on growth. Given future predictions warming declining precipitation global models Mediterranean region, an increase stress affecting these expected, will affect their survival, mainly areas.