Hubbert’s petroleum production model: an evaluation and implications for World Oil Production Forecasts

摘要: Following Hubbert’s successful prediction of the timing US peak oil production, model has been used extensively to predict production elsewhere. However, forecasts world and regional natural gas using methodology usually have failed, leading implicit belief that such predictions always will fail we need not worry about finite resources. A careful examination approach indicates most important reasons for his success in were stable markets, high growth rate demand, ready availability low cost imports, a reasonable estimate easily extractable reserves. This analysis also shows cannot ultimate reserves it should be considered an econometric model. Building on vital insight, cheap fossil fuel are knowable finite, one can state political constraints much more than resource constraints.