Renewable energy perspectives for the North African electricity systems: a comparative analysis of model-based scenario studies

摘要: Prospects for the integration of power markets and expansion renewable energy have recently triggered a number publications dealing with transformation scenarios North African electricity systems. This paper compares five studies using economic supply- demand models to assess possible development pathways systems from today until 2030 2050. The analysis shows that distinct modeling methodologies as well different approaches scenario design parameter assumptions can strongly influence studies' results, leading very heterogenous projections Africa's generation structures patterns exchange other regions, like Europe. Common findings are surplus costs capital-intensive in Africa most cases be offset by avoided fuel investments conventional plants. All further agree increased transnational cooperation, notably terms market cross-border exchanges, bring about important advantages sector. Renewable could also drive exports Europe, but integrated schemes, such only become viable high share exceeding 60% demand.