Climate Variability and the Millennium Development Goal Hunger Target

摘要: Climate variability contributes significantly to poverty and food insecurity. Proactive approaches managing climate within vulnerable rural communities among institutions operating at community, sub-national, national levels is a crucial step toward achieving the Millennium Development Goal of eradicating extreme hunger. can impact household’s access by affecting subsistence production, income from primary local prices, sometimes economy an entire region. The risk household insecurity determined success livelihood strategies in face other shocks. Across economy, affects security through its influence on investment, adoption agricultural technology, aggregate market prices economic development, hence ability individuals, nations produce purchase food. impacts are both ex post – losses that follow shock ante opportunity costs conservative management responses climatic uncertainty. report summarizes scientific basis, current methodology, prospects for improving prediction seasonal time scale. Current forecast methods give modest moderately-high skill “hunger hotspots” East, West Southern Africa, regions tropics subtropics. Applications information contribute comprehensive strategy combat First use early warning systems guide interventions avert crises. Second manage range institutions. This includes smallholder farmers who comprise largest group poor food-insecure; intermediary interface with farmers, provide information, technical guidance production inputs required effective management; make climate-sensitive decisions broader scale security. We also discuss measures strengthen institutional capacity coordination improve variability. Improved has appealing synergies target hunger, including soil fertility management, small-scale water markets, extension communication systems.