Sensitivity of pavement network optimization system to its prediction models

摘要: The prediction models in the network optimization system (NOS) are exhibited form of transition probability matrices (TPMs) newly implemented NOS (AZNOS) Arizona Department Transportation. Due to variability pavement performance parameters over time, it is necessary study effect influencing factors causing this variability. One such factor annual expenditure on rehabilitation, which determined with help AZNOS results. In addition, rehabilitation budgets recommended by existing conditions, standards, and, more importantly, through use linear routine. Even though evident that variations probabilities from and particular condition states will affect AZNOS, there a lack quantitative analysis relationship. models' sensitivity current conditions analyzed. This demonstrates inherent relationship among (TPMs), needs, conditions. also reveals an important property large future savings program may be obtained applications effective preventive maintenance actions pavements.