Modeling the demography of species providing extended parental care: A capture-recapture multievent model with a case study on polar bears (Ursus maritimus).

摘要: In species providing extended parental care, one or both parents care for altricial young over a period including more than breeding season. We expect large investment and long-term dependency within family units to cause high variability in life trajectories among individuals with complex consequences at the population level. So far, models estimating demographic parameters free-ranging animal populations mostly ignore thereby limiting our understanding of its on offspring histories.We designed capture-recapture multievent model studying demography care. It handles statistical multiple-year individual grouped units, variable litter size, uncertainty timing independence. allows evaluation trade-offs parameters, influence past reproductive history caring parent's survival status, probability, size while accounting imperfect detection units. assess performance using simulated data illustrate use dataset collected Svalbard polar bears (Ursus maritimus).Our performed well terms bias mean square error all scenarios, when departure probability from unit occurred constant rate varied during field season depending date capture. For bear case study, we provide estimates adult dependent rates, probability. Results showed that outcome previous reproduction influenced probability.Overall, results show importance i) ii) independence, iii) parent. If ignored, obtained can be biased. This is interest conservation because are often long-living mammals vulnerable threatened extinction.