The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh

摘要: In Bangladesh the poultry industry is an economically and socially important sector, but persistently threatened by effects of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza. Thus, identifying optimal control policy in response to emerging disease outbreak a key challenge for policy-makers. To inform this aim, common approach carry out simulation studies comparing plausible strategies, while accounting known capacity restrictions. study we perform simulations previously developed influenza transmission model framework, fitted two separate historical outbreaks, assess specific objectives related burden or duration outbreaks among farms Dhaka division Bangladesh. particular explore implementation ring culling, vaccination active surveillance measures when presuming predominately occurs from premises-to-premises, versus setting requiring inclusion external factors. Additionally, determine sensitivity management actions under consideration differing levels constraints with disparate dynamics. While find that reactive culling policies should pay close attention these factors ensure intervention targeting optimised, targeted proactive schemes appear significantly outperform procedures all instances. Our findings may advise type measure, plus its severity, be applied event re-emergent amongst