Indicators of terrorist intent and capability: Tools for threat assessment

作者: Bart Schuurman , Quirine Eijkman

DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2015.1040426

关键词: Process (engineering)AmateurTerrorismRadicalizationPolitical violencePolitical scienceSocial psychologyMultitudeThreat assessmentCommitPublic relations

摘要: Behaviors or expressions can (inadvertently) communicate the intention capability to commit a terrorist attack. Such pre-attack “indicators” be used improve police services’ ability detect and interdict plots before they materialize. This article explores concept of terrorism indicators by applying it seven case studies home-grown jihadist groups individuals that occurred in three Western countries between 2004 2007. Two main findings are presented: framework conceptualizes process as consisting distinct phases and, divided over these phases, multitude possible intent capability. The run-up attack is found multipronged chaotic rather than neat linear progression through preparatory stages. may characteristic loosely organized relatively amateur nature studied.

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