Multiscale model of regional population decline in little brown bats due to white‐nose syndrome

摘要: The introduced fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans is causing decline of several species bats in North America, with some even at risk extinction or extirpation. severity the epidemic white‐nose syndrome caused by P. destructans has prompted investigation transmission and virulence infection multiple scales, but linking these scales necessary to quantify mechanisms assess population‐scale declines. We built a model connecting within‐hibernaculum disease dynamics little brown regional‐scale dispersal, reproduction, spread, including plausible transmission. We parameterized using approach parameter sets, comparing stochastic simulation results statistical probes from empirical data on prevalence survival, as well among‐hibernacula spread across region. Our are consistent frequency‐dependent between bats, support an important role environmental transmission, show very effect dispersal among colonies metapopulation survival. The help identify influential parameters largest sources uncertainty. also offers generalizable method hypotheses about hibernaculum‐to‐hibernaculum gaps knowledge key processes, could be expanded include additional bat species.