How many how old how soon

摘要: ![][1] These four articles are based on presentations to be given at a BMJ conference next Tuesday. “Medicine in an Ageing Society” will consider what demographic change means for medical practice, education, and medicine's institutions The changes the age structure of human populations unprecedented continuing. They represent great successes achievements health social development such that more people than ever before likely survive old age. However, also bring new demands, since most societal institutions evolved with different structures population. These demands affect all aspects society, including employment, taxation, pensions, and, not least, health. We need develop plan policies across whole society able address requirements ageing society. Appropriate planning requires some estimation future. Central is question numbers proportions ages be, over period. In this article I present population projections United Kingdom discuss possible implications health. #### Summary points The number aged 60 years projected increase from 12 million (20% population) 2001 18.6 2031 (30%) The various chronic diseases disabilities two threefold Morbidity highly sensitive small incidence prevalence disease Large secular trends many indicate modifiable environmental determinants Identification causes prevention conditions leading serious disability must high priority ![][2] I obtained specific 2066 Office National Statistics.1 The methods used … [1]: /embed/graphic-1.gif [2]: /embed/graphic-2.gif