Resources as a Constraint on Growth

摘要: For a considerable part of its history, the American economy has functioned as cowboy economy. It been in sense that there have no important resource constraints on growth. This is not to say land, minerals, and clean environment freely available. Rather, agricultural land could be obtained at roughly constant costs; most essential minerals present fairly high grade abundance; used sink without becoming fouled. In last several decades, however, cropland stayed almost constant. Some mineral deposits exhausted, carrying capacity our strained. The scarcity resources led many argue operating rules must change. Whereas we afford use profligately, new view economic growth closing all frontiers means are now spaceship economy, great attention paid sources life dumps where refuse piled. Things which traditionally treated free goods-air, water, quiet, natural beauty-must with same care other scarce goods. would seem difficult question observation world progressing toward closed system. Many carried this further, describing future imperiled by famine, depleted materials, running out energy, or choking own exhaust fumes. Behind these pessimistic visions deeper skepticism about very fruits Economists for ridiculed growth, arguing it merely Chicken Little Run Wild. I think taken seriously analyzed carefully. What learned view? first set studies relates theoretical investigations. (By mean propositions based largely untested assumptions model structure -perhaps hypothetical more accurate term.) category belong celebrated writings sponsored Club Rome well offshoots work (Jay Forrester, Dennis H. Meadows et al.). These works demonstrated that, under certain conditions involving technology, population, availability, sustained path consumption possible. conclusions generally accepted economists because dubious nature their assumptions. particular, regarding population technology quite unsatisfactory. Several authors shown models robust minor modifications structure. Thus R. Boyd showed introducing factor called "technology" drastically alter model's path. My (1973a) any three changes structure-ongoing technological progress, adequate substitution decline-would lead opposite optimistic results. should stressed, * Yale University.