Can we predict risky human behaviour involving invasive species? A case study of the release of fishes to the wild

摘要: Managing risky human behaviour involving invasive species, such as unauthorized stocking or the release of pets to wild, is difficult because rationale for risk taking often unknown. To identify factors that increase likelihood behaviour, we conducted social surveys and analyzed perceptions about natural resource management, norms, outreach initiatives live bait anglers in Ontario, Canada Michigan, USA. We used classification trees predict (release fishes; Prelease = 0.197, 0.275) based on patterns variation perceptions. Irrespective release, respondents generally agreed with (and exhibited strong willingness pay for) prevention despite only moderate consensus use had been impacted by species. The most parsimonious model was convenience releasing fishes (mis)perception released provide an ecological benefit resources, which held 70.5 % takers (classification rate 80.6 %, true negative 84.6 AUC 0.81). Therefore, other than those directly species strongly individual will wild. For a subset (29.5 %) takers, unpredictable lacked obvious rationale; therefore, additional management efforts remain justified offset actions may never be understood certainty targeted strategies are likely ineffective.