Fire hazard modulation by long-term dynamics in land cover and dominant forest type in eastern and central Europe

摘要: Abstract. Wildfire occurrence is influenced by climate, vegetation and human activities. A key challenge for understanding the risk of fires quantifying mediating effect on fire regimes. Here, we explore relative importance Holocene land cover, land use, dominant functional forest type, climate dynamics biomass burning in temperate boreo-nemoral regions central eastern Europe over past 12 kyr. We used an extensive data set pollen and sedimentary charcoal records, combination with simulations and statistical modelling. Biomass burning was highest during early Holocene and lowest mid-Holocene all three ecoregions (Atlantic, continental boreo-nemoral) but more spatially variable over 3–4 kyr. Although explained a significant variance biomass Holocene, tree cover consistently predictor over the 8 kyr. In forests, high at ∼45  % tree cover decreased to a minimum at between 60 % and 70 % cover. needleleaf-dominated was highest ∼  60 %–65 % steeply declined >65 also increased when arable lands grasslands reached  15 %–20 %, although this relationship depending use practice via ignition sources, fuel type quantities. Higher reduced amount of solar radiation reaching floor could provide moister, more wind-protected microclimates underneath canopies, thereby decreasing fuel flammability. Tree which appears be driven warmer drier summer conditions and by increasing human influence late Holocene. suggest that long-term fire hazard may be effectively through management, given land cover has controlled regimes under dynamic climates the Holocene.