The Effect of Potential Catastrophic Mortality and Other Unpredictable Events on Optimal Forest Rotation Policy

摘要: Because standard methods for computing the optimal rotation age of a forest stand must assume complete knowledge value at any future time, manager treat his estimates values as if they were completely accurate. Minor, unpredictable fluctuations from year to are assumed somehow cancel each other out. Potential catastrophes, such fires or insect plagues, customarily ignored. An alternate method dealing with uncertainty is presented here. This can incorporate likelihood catastrophes. It shown that catastrophic moraltiy has potentially significant effect on strategy, average profits, and land valuation.