Forecasting Americans’ long-term adoption of connected and autonomous vehicle technologies

摘要: Abstract Automobile manufacturers, transportation researchers, and policymakers are interested in knowing the future of connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs). To this end, study proposes a new simulation-based fleet evolution framework to forecast Americans’ long-term (year 2015–2045) adoption levels CAV technologies under eight different scenarios based on 5% 10% annual drops technology prices; 0%, 5%, increments willingness pay (WTP); changes government regulations (e.g., mandatory connectivity vehicles). This simulation was calibrated with data obtained from survey 2167 Americans, regarding their preferences for WTP) household’s vehicle transaction decisions. Long-term suggests that privately held light-duty-vehicle will have 24.8% Level 4 AV penetration by 2045 if one assumes an price drop constant WTP values (from 2015 forward). share jumps 87.2% uses rate decline prices rise values. Overall, simulations suggest that, without most people’s WTP, or policies promote require technologies, unusually rapid reductions costs, it is unlikely U.S. light-duty fleet’s mix be anywhere near homogeneous year 2045.